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Aug. 28, 2007

Linux will power about 31 percent of all smartphones sold in 2012, and by then will have shipped in 331 million devices, says ABI. The research firm forecasts 75 percent CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for Linux in smartphones through 2012, making it the fastest-growing OS in the sector.

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Factors influencing Linux's success, as foreseen by ABI, include:

The "rise of mobile broadband" and resultant device convergence
Development initiatives from large computing and mobile phone companies
Adoption by handset OEMs

ABI hedges on complete Linux bullishness, however, noting concerns that include:

Vertical and horizontal fragmentation
Microsoft patent infringement assertions

Stuart Carlaw, research director, commented, "Serious initiatives from the likes of Intel [story] and Access [story] are gathering pace and momentum, whilst the carrier community continues to identify Linux as one of the few operating systems that it intends to support in its long-term plans. Linux is benefiting from growing support in the handset OEM community, most notably Motorola [story], but also Nokia with less traditional types of devices [story] aimed at mobile broadband applications."

The findings are from ABI's ongoing "Mobile Linux" study. Further details can be found here.

Other factors likely to help Linux in the smartphone market include possible use in Google GPhones and Sprint/Nokia WiMAX terminals, the rise of smartphones in Japan, where Linux has already achieved considerable success, and the work of powerful industry groups like LiMo (Linux Mobile Alliance) and LiPS (Linux Phone Standards Forum). Meanwhile, in the world's largest mobile phone market (China), Linux already has a 30 percent share, CCID Consulting Company said in March.

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